Skip to main content

Standard Deviations

Did you know that chicken eggs can influence how computers generate random events? Or that humans can postpone death until after important ceremonial occasions? Or live three to five years longer if they have positive initials, like ACE?

All these ‘facts’ have been presented with a straight face by researchers and backed up with convincing statistics. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps we so often fall into. Today, data is so plentiful and our reliance on computer analysis and AI so entrenched that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful deductions and rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.

Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioural economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely, and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind the statistics.

What the Luck?

We underestimate the importance of luck in our lives. We think too highly of the golfer who wins the British Open and, if he loses the next tournament, we speculate that he slacked off. Although the winner is surely an excellent golfer, good luck in how the ball bounced and how it rolled afterwards outside of the golfer’s control also played an important role. An insufficient appreciation of chance can wreak all kinds of mischief not only in sports, but also education, medicine, business, politics and elsewhere. Perfectly natural, random variation can lead us to attach meaning to the meaningless.

Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counter-intuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow, helped readers identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck? statistician and author, Gary Smith, sets himself a similar goal, and explains – in clear, understandable, and witty prose – how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives.

Sign up to hear more

Sign up to get the latest news and events from Duckworth.

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
0
    0
    Your Cart
    Your cart is emptyReturn